No-regret moves
Practicum for Volume 2, Chapter 10, "2030: Four Futures." Version: 2026-07. Time: 20-30 minutes. Build a five-move portfolio that helps in any of the four worlds.
Strategists use the term no-regret moves for actions that pay off across different futures. They make these moves before the future becomes clear. An investor might call this a portfolio instead of a single bet. The book's argument leads to a portfolio of five moves. None says "learn tool X." A tool is a bet on one scenario. This portfolio holds assets that can survive a change of scenario.
Five moves: where I stand and what comes next
| # | No-regret move | Where I am now (1-5) | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I own the outcome, not the output. I answer for the result, not the volume produced | ||
| 2 | I keep direct access to at least some customers or audience through a list that an algorithm change cannot take away | ||
| 3 | I build a portable reputation, my own ladder: finished work, people, and a name | ||
| 4 | I strengthen the human junction: judgment, trust, and responsibility become more valuable in every world | ||
| 5 | I keep a backup route on the rails: several providers plus portable data and prompts |
Rate each move from 1 to 5. A score of 1 means you do not work on it; 5 means it is a strength.
My weakest move: _____________
How each move works in the four worlds
| Move | Platforms | Divide | Multiplication | Human premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own the outcome | a junction others pay to access | bargaining power | machines multiply my work | signature becomes the product |
| Direct access | insurance | support | accelerator | accelerator |
| My own ladder | an outside system cannot optimize it away | the only support | leverage | capital |
| Human junction | scarce | scarce | scarce | highest value |
| Backup route | protection from price changes | protection from disruption | sound engineering | sound engineering |
Use the portfolio to test major decisions
The same five moves can test any major choice: an employer, sales channel, annual strategy, or a child's education. Ask: In how many of the four worlds does this option work? An offer with more pay but routine middle-layer work may win in one world. A smaller offer with customer contact, a portable name, and new problems may win in all four.
Three upcoming decisions I will test with "How many of the 4 worlds does it work in?":
| Decision | Option A: how many worlds? | Option B: how many worlds? | Choice |
|---|---|---|---|
This question cannot guarantee the right answer. It stops you from placing everything on one forecast without admitting it.
Next
See which world your decisions support in Which World Are You Building?. Build move 3 with Build Your Own Ladder: Three Materials (Chapter 8). Build move 5 with the Platform Rent Map (Chapter 9).
Back: Volume 2 Workbook. Version: 2026-07.