AGI claim check: five questions instead of "Is this AGI?"
Worksheet for Volume 2, Chapter 10, "2030: Four Futures." Status: candidate Practicum material. Add it to navigation after the author accepts the Chapter 10 package. Time: 20-30 minutes for one claim. Version: 2026-08-11.
Use this worksheet when you see a promise such as "we have AGI," "the model will replace a department," "the agent will do the job alone," or "people no longer need to learn."
Do not argue about the label. Break the claim into five testable questions.
1. What is the task?
Choose one task, not a profession or a whole company.
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| What result should the task produce? | |
| What are the inputs? | |
| What counts as a successful output? | |
| How long does it take a person who has the right context? | |
| Where does the task get messy: people, contradictions, missing data, politics, or trust? |
If you cannot describe the task in one paragraph, you cannot test the claim yet.
2. What does an error cost?
| Cost of error | Example | Your case |
|---|---|---|
| Low | draft, idea, internal note | |
| Medium | customer email, calculation, public text | |
| High | money, contract, health, safety, dismissal, reputation |
The higher the cost, the less suitable the "AI will figure it out" mode becomes.
3. How reliable is it?
Build a small test set of 20-30 real examples.
| Type of example | What to include | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Normal | what happens every day | |
| Difficult | heavy context, ambiguity, or a long document | |
| Bad input | missing data, contradictions, or the wrong format | |
| Red zone | a case where AI must stop |
Do not record only pass or fail. Record the error type: invented a fact, missed a risk, took the wrong action, failed to stop, or failed to explain its path.
4. Who controls the action?
| Control | Yes / no |
|---|---|
| A person owns the process | |
| A log records inputs, sources, actions, and uncertainty | |
| A stop rule exists | |
| Access and permissions are limited | |
| An action can be rolled back quickly | |
| Each error returns to the test set |
Without an owner and a stop rule, this is not autonomy. It is ownerless risk.
5. Which human ability becomes stronger?
A useful AI system should strengthen a human ability, not only produce more output.
| Ability | Stronger? | How to tell |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment | the person sees options and consequences more clearly | |
| Review | the person finds errors and weak points faster | |
| Learning | the person understands the path instead of copying the answer | |
| Responsibility | it is clear who signs off on the result | |
| Independence | the person builds the workflow instead of waiting for instructions |
If the claim makes the person more passive, that is a warning sign even when the demo looks good.
Final decision
| Question | Decision |
|---|---|
| Is the task clear? | yes / no |
| Is the cost of error acceptable? | yes / no |
| Did it pass the test set? | yes / no |
| Is control sufficient? | yes / no |
| Does the person become stronger? | yes / no |
What to do next
- 5 yes answers: you may increase autonomy for this task.
- 3-4 yes answers: use it as an assistant or draft tool, not as an independent agent.
- 0-2 yes answers: the claim is still marketing. Define the task and build the test first.
Formula
Do not ask, "Is this AGI?" Ask: Which task does the system solve, how reliably, at what cost of error, under whose control, and which human ability does it strengthen?
Version: 2026-07-05.